Praveen Pathiyil’s Forecasts

Click below to read the article. http://www.dalaltimes.com/ article/market/top-5-reasons- why-i-say-niftys-correction- is-far-from-over-120742.aspx   Praveen Pathiyil

Let's analyse in depth the bank nifty for tonight. Stay tuned.

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! Mr. Market loves to play fool around with Bulls Bears and all analysts. This is what we stated last week and here he goes. Now Nifty is marching towards filing up the hard gap that we have witnessed in the month of August. What next? Even before we discuss what next, I wanted to discuss something i think is more important to read before analyzing markets. The topic for discussion is "Looking at the chart at different angles (time frame) ". Someone asked me this over the weekend, what would be done if different time frames gives different outlook. A very good question, I said now you have started to learn analyzing markets. Why? Unless a person looks at the chart in different time frames he is not going to understand what is happening or rather understand what is...

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! Just now the DOW closed, closed with big gains however closed this quarter on a losing streak. As some of you know, I analyse and trade DOW more than any other market. Let’s get into business. Am going to keep this post a bit longer. As we move towards a longer weekend, let us do the analysis bit deeper. Am going to take you through how a real analyst go through a chart with minute observations to arrive at some conclusion. It would be boring for some who doesn’t want to learn how to make money. It’s going to interesting for those who want to understand how a technical analyst observes a chart.   Firstly, let us pull up the longer term picture of Nifty – the monthly chart. Nifty – Monthly We can easily identify the long term upward sloping trend-l...

Technically speaking, governor's surprise announcement on the rate cut, hasn't changed the charts much. Nifty likely to continue zig zag moves in the session ahead. The rate cut would give us a positive impact on the longer run. Safe Investing!

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! Let us look at the Nifty chart first on a larger time frame before we proceed on in understanding what is going to happen in the next 2-3 days. Let us look at the main picture first. Looking at the main picture, it is very clear that we are still in the final leg of this correction. This could take more time before we break out of this correction. The reason why it is taking more time in getting us out of the correction zone is very simple; this correction is actually an accumulation phase. Looking very closely at the stocks of the broader market, one can understand one thing that people are accumulating good stocks on a daily basis taking leverage of the ongoing correction that we are witnessing. Though the broader markets may be moving down with each passing d...

Dear All, It has been a testing month for me and dalal times as a team. We at dalal times face challenges that any other startup would face. This has made me not overlooking the blog. I understand the faith and trust that you have kept on me and my team. I sincerely apologies for the non updation of this blog and not answering the queries. I will resume blogging from tonight and try to answer all pending queries by tomorrow. Once again a sincere apologies. Regards, Praveen Pathiyil 

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! It has been a great day for the bulls yesterday, with no bears hardly found on the trading floor. The question is, ' is this the start of the next leg up? ' This can only be answered by looking into the major time frame chart. Let us pull up the Nifty monthly chart to understand where we stand. Looking at the chart, it is clear that the up move of 130 points that we saw yesterday hardly had impacted the ongoing correction. The chart shows more downside to come in coming weeks. From my experience my observation on RSI and its correlation with correction: "for a healthy new leg up, the correction has to end up when RSI settles down in between the range of 50 & 45. I have marked this in the above chart, and we can clearly see that there is still room ...

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! I haven't been updating this blog for past few days, the reason was simple, I haven't seen something new in Nifty's chart. I am still holding the view that Nifty has to correct till 7400. 7460 and 7400 are two crucial support levels that I see in Nifty chart. Now the question for the day is: will 7400 hold?  I am afraid to tell, looking at the chart, I see more correction to take place in Nifty. The ugly part is: a) the next phase of correction below 7460 would be a dragging one b) the time taken to move Nifty out this correction zone would be more than what we could anticipate. Though these are my anticipations based on my experience, I could go wrong, and I have gone wrong many a times. The only person who can answer all our questions is Mr...

Good Evening! We have received a stock query from Mr. Hukumat Nathwani. He wants to know what are the prospects of Tata Steel? Here is my view on Tata Steel. Fundamentally and technically Tata Steel is looking weak. This is one of the stocks which I used to track very closely till a year back. I would like to highlight one important factor here, to my experience I have seen technical studies turn first followed by the fundamental factors; this is one of the reason why I focus more on technicals and not purely going by fundamentals. There is always a difference of opinion between technical analysts and fundamentalist on which one is supreme school of thought, however I believe to earn money from markets you should have through understanding of both the sciences. Let’s get back to Tata Steel. During the month of May, 2014 when this stock broke out on the positive side, I considered it to be the best buy. However the beauty of technicals is this, it can only initia...

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! Am going to keep this short. Nifty’s price action suggests little more downside is on its way. However I was wrong in anticipating it to be a free fall towards 7400. Rather than a free fall we witness a zig zag fall in place for nifty. This shows how strong our ongoing multi month bull run is. 7400 is going to stay, and it would be interesting to watch out for how Bulls behave once hitting this level. The trends for the day. Long term Trend : Correction to the ongoing Bull Run. As long as we hold on to 6580 we will not turn negative on the long term view of Bull that we hold. Intermediate term Trend : Trending Down. Looking at the trending pattern on the intermediate time scale, am not fully convinced the way it unfolds. Any positive move above yesterday’s h...

Ask Pathiyil We understand when it comes to investing in stock markets, there are always many questions in your mind to be answered. When should I invest? Which stock to buy? When to exit? What is the future prospects of a company? and so on.... With these question in your mind, we have created this section exclusive for you. We are here to help you with answers for your questions. Use the contact me form on your left panel to ask question or write to us your question at askpathiyil@gmail.com We would be happy to help you and share our wisdom. Informed Investing!

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! What a start to the month of September. As expected Nifty has started to move towards 7400. We are looking for a firm support at the level of 7460. The question remains, is this good enough to hold for the multi month Bull Run on the larger time frame? With yesterday’s price action, the good news for the bears is the intermediate trend has turned negative. This will add more pressure for the last standing bulls (short term investors). Meanwhile, the psychology parameter which was bullish till Monday have also turned and it indicates a neutral view. If bears manage to close Nifty lower today, we could see fear creeping into the markets. Technically Speaking, the inherent strength (marked by RSI) on all different time scales (daily, weekly and monthly) has more room to...

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! Having broken all major support (8240 & 8120) last week and closed below them, Nifty likely to continue its downward journey towards 7400 this week. If you look closely the Nifty chart at different time frames one thing is evident, that volumes spike up at every fall, indicating how the bears are  utilizing  the opportunity to build short with every short lived raise. 7940 would act as a minor support for the day, however having this level broken last week, we can see this level breaking at ease by the bears. In short, especially the last 3 days of this week would be controlled mainly by the bears.  Technically speaking, on the daily chart of Nifty I am looking for a move in RSI towards 50 and MACD to converge a little more. These would give mo...

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! A positive move yesterday and possibly today do not change our outlook in Nifty. If you think I am a bear, you are wrong. I am not a bull nor a bear, and keep changing roles as per the market trend. I believe staying one sided in market won’t lead you anywhere. Today is the start of a new series and we are also going to start our Bank Nifty analysis from today. We will also introduce stocks from Monday. First thing first. Let’s look at Nifty’s chart and understand what it holds. Nifty has broken down with a gap down, unless Nifty manages to close above the start of the gap down i.e. close above 8360, we will hold on to our intermediate view as negative on Nifty. The volumes data for yesterdays could mislead as it was expiry. It would be interesting to know how Nifty a...

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! It’s going to be a crucial expiry for Nifty. While most of the roll overs have been done, it would be interesting to understand how smart money would stack up positions for the next series. It’s always the trend that will guide us in understanding what is most likely to happen in the coming days/ weeks/ months. So am going to make this a point to highlight you what the trends are on every blog post that been updated. For Nifty the trends are: Long term Trend : Correction to the ongoing Bull Run. As long as we hold on to 6580 we will not turn negative on the long term view of Bull that we hold. Intermediate term Trend : Not trending. Short term Trend : Trending Down. The trend will not change until we close above 8240, which means 8240 would act as SL for ...

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! The correction isn’t over. Yesterday’s positive closing is just a relief rally that we witnessed and not the start of the next leg up. We are fast moving towards 7400 on the downside. Having expiry round the corner, we believe the haphazard move in markets to continue. Once the correction is done, we are going to have wonderful opportunity to enter into sound stocks which could fetch 3 times or 4 times the present value. Stay patient until we are done with turbulent wave. Safe Investing!

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! What a day it was! A Monday to forget, unfortunately not. As I said last week, the unconvinced up move 7940 has eventually faded out and we have started with new (probably) last leg of this correction phase. This is a correction only and looking at the nifty chart in different time frames, it is clear that we have more points to go down before we conclude saying the correction is over. What are we looking for, on the downside? This is how most likely the nifty is going to move in the coming weeks. A free fall until 7430 An up move (dead cat bounce) all the way till 7940 A zig zag move towards 7430 – 7250 – 7090 – 6940 – 6810 Remember these zig zag moves, not necessarily need to be met: the reason is we are in the first correction of a multi month bull ral...

An impressive come back! It has been an impressive come back by the bulls especially during the last one hour of today's trade. However two important questions remains unanswered. 1) Is this come back by the bulls enough for the gap down and break down of congestion zone created by bears this morning? and 2) Will bulls manage to close above 8322 today? Yes, I think today's closing is more important to chart out the next phase of move in nifty. Eagerly awaiting close and looking at the key level 8322.

Good Morning! Am going to keep this short, as there is no major change in the daily chart of Nifty. Still struck within the congestion zone, Nifty might break out of the zone at the earliest. On the backdrop of global melt down the previous night, this seems more likely as this could be the trigger to get nifty out of this zone. Once the break down is confirmed, we will start discussing possible levels in Nifty. Keep a close watch on 8120 as this could be first likely target on downside. Do check back this weekend as we are going to start classroom on technical analysis. Bears are more likely to overpower if we see a negative close today. Am going to do a quick wrap up at 3.15p.m. today, in order to help you decide to stay long or short in the market. Happy trading!

Good Morning! Working with different time frames of a chart provides much better clarity in understanding what could be the most likely next move in it. A good analyst never arrives at a conclusion just by looking at a chart in isolation. Starting today we are going to discuss what could unfold in Nifty on day to day basis. Even though I will not be populating any other Nifty time frame chart except daily chart, I would like to disclose that the forecasts that you would read in this blog in Nifty or for that matter any other stocks is arrived after looking into different time frames. I work with monthly, weekly and daily charts. I used to look at hourly and 15 min chart, however I have stopped using it on regular basis as time frames above daily chart works better for me in terms of forecasting. I invest in markets and do not trade now a days and hence I have also restricted looking at charts when markets are live. This is how this blog is going to shape up from today, daily ...