Monday, 31 August 2015

Nifty to resume downside move towards 7400 this week

Bottom Line: We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days.


Good Morning!


Having broken all major support (8240 & 8120) last week and closed below them, Nifty likely to continue its downward journey towards 7400 this week. If you look closely the Nifty chart at different time frames one thing is evident, that volumes spike up at every fall, indicating how the bears are utilizing the opportunity to build short with every short lived raise. 7940 would act as a minor support for the day, however having this level broken last week, we can see this level breaking at ease by the bears. In short, especially the last 3 days of this week would be controlled mainly by the bears. 

Technically speaking, on the daily chart of Nifty I am looking for a move in RSI towards 50 and MACD to converge a little more. These would give more strength to the bears to push the Nifty harder towards 7400 in the second half of this week. Stay calm as once this turbulent wave is over, we are going to see a major upside move.

The trends for the day.

Long term Trend: Correction to the ongoing Bull Run. As long as we hold on to 6580 we will not turn negative on the long term view of Bull that we hold.

Intermediate term Trend: Not trending.

Short term Trend: Trending Down. The trend will not change until we close above 8240, which means 8240 would act as SL for those who are short in Nifty.

Safe Investing!

Friday, 28 August 2015

Nifty and Bank Nifty's Surge!

Bottom Line: We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days.

Good Morning!

A positive move yesterday and possibly today do not change our outlook in Nifty. If you think I am a bear, you are wrong. I am not a bull nor a bear, and keep changing roles as per the market trend. I believe staying one sided in market won’t lead you anywhere. Today is the start of a new series and we are also going to start our Bank Nifty analysis from today. We will also introduce stocks from Monday.


First thing first. Let’s look at Nifty’s chart and understand what it holds. Nifty has broken down with a gap down, unless Nifty manages to close above the start of the gap down i.e. close above 8360, we will hold on to our intermediate view as negative on Nifty. The volumes data for yesterdays could mislead as it was expiry. It would be interesting to know how Nifty and volume data reacts to start of new series. The trends for the day.

Long term Trend: Correction to the ongoing Bull Run. As long as we hold on to 6580 we will not turn negative on the long term view of Bull that we hold.

Intermediate term Trend: Not trending.

Short term Trend: Trending Down. The trend will not change until we close above 8240, which means 8240 would act as SL for those who are short in Nifty.

Take away: Short term trend in Nifty still points downside, and hence we are sticking with the negative view on Nifty. Have a close watch on 8115 as the close above this in today’s trade could (not necessarily) change the short term view from negative to neutral.

Bank Nifty: Likewise in Nifty, Bank Nifty too is in a correction and we haven’t changed our long term outlook to bearish. Bank Nifty is moving towards 15450 on the downside.


The trends for the day.

Long term Trend: Correction to the ongoing Bull Run. As long as we hold on to 13800 we will not turn negative on the long term view of Bull that we hold.

Intermediate term Trend: Not trending.

Short term Trend: Trending Down. The short term trend in Bank Nifty is stronger than the broader index Nifty. As long as Bank Nifty trades below 18220, we will not change our short term negative outlook.

Safe Investing!

Thursday, 27 August 2015

Crucial expiry day

Bottom Line: We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days.


Good Morning!


It’s going to be a crucial expiry for Nifty. While most of the roll overs have been done, it would be interesting to understand how smart money would stack up positions for the next series. It’s always the trend that will guide us in understanding what is most likely to happen in the coming days/ weeks/ months. So am going to make this a point to highlight you what the trends are on every blog post that been updated.

For Nifty the trends are:

Long term Trend: Correction to the ongoing Bull Run. As long as we hold on to 6580 we will not turn negative on the long term view of Bull that we hold.

Intermediate term Trend: Not trending.

Short term Trend: Trending Down. The trend will not change until we close above 8240, which means 8240 would act as SL for those who are short in Nifty.

Going to include bank nifty from tomorrow (new series) and stocks from September 1. So stay tuned as I expand my technical views beyond nifty.

Safe Investing!

Wednesday, 26 August 2015

Nifty will move towards 7400

Bottom Line: We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days.


Good Morning!


The correction isn’t over. Yesterday’s positive closing is just a relief rally that we witnessed and not the start of the next leg up. We are fast moving towards 7400 on the downside. Having expiry round the corner, we believe the haphazard move in markets to continue.

Once the correction is done, we are going to have wonderful opportunity to enter into sound stocks which could fetch 3 times or 4 times the present value. Stay patient until we are done with turbulent wave.

Safe Investing!

Tuesday, 25 August 2015

More correction is due in Nifty

Bottom Line: We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days.


Good Morning!


What a day it was! A Monday to forget, unfortunately not. As I said last week, the unconvinced up move 7940 has eventually faded out and we have started with new (probably) last leg of this correction phase. This is a correction only and looking at the nifty chart in different time frames, it is clear that we have more points to go down before we conclude saying the correction is over. What are we looking for, on the downside? This is how most likely the nifty is going to move in the coming weeks.

A free fall until 7430

An up move (dead cat bounce) all the way till 7940

A zig zag move towards 7430 – 7250 – 7090 – 6940 – 6810

Remember these zig zag moves, not necessarily need to be met: the reason is we are in the first correction of a multi month bull rally. Averaging or re-entering could start from any of these zig zag levels. Of course yes, I will be updating as it unfolds, however as I received many calls yesterday asking how far it can plunge am updating these possible levels on Nifty. Can you see bottom line at the top? Am going to update it until we are done with the correction. Hold up your cash to re-enter markets or average stocks once correction is done.

A small reminder: Kindly do not stack up positions based on margins, it might damper your entire capital. Will let you know when the time to take leverage is ready.

Safe Investing!

Note: There was a problem with blog updation for the previous weekend and yesterday. Hope this has resolved and will start updating on stock queries that I received starting 26th. If you have any questions please use the contact form placed on the left panel of this blog.

Friday, 21 August 2015

Closing comments on Nifty

An impressive come back!

It has been an impressive come back by the bulls especially during the last one hour of today's trade. However two important questions remains unanswered. 1) Is this come back by the bulls enough for the gap down and break down of congestion zone created by bears this morning? and 2) Will bulls manage to close above 8322 today? Yes, I think today's closing is more important to chart out the next phase of move in nifty. Eagerly awaiting close and looking at the key level 8322.


A quick note for 21/08/2015

Good Morning!

Am going to keep this short, as there is no major change in the daily chart of Nifty. Still struck within the congestion zone, Nifty might break out of the zone at the earliest. On the backdrop of global melt down the previous night, this seems more likely as this could be the trigger to get nifty out of this zone. Once the break down is confirmed, we will start discussing possible levels in Nifty. Keep a close watch on 8120 as this could be first likely target on downside. Do check back this weekend as we are going to start classroom on technical analysis.



Bears are more likely to overpower if we see a negative close today. Am going to do a quick wrap up at 3.15p.m. today, in order to help you decide to stay long or short in the market.


Happy trading!

Thursday, 20 August 2015

Nifty Outlook for 20/08/2015

Good Morning!

Working with different time frames of a chart provides much better clarity in understanding what could be the most likely next move in it. A good analyst never arrives at a conclusion just by looking at a chart in isolation. Starting today we are going to discuss what could unfold in Nifty on day to day basis. Even though I will not be populating any other Nifty time frame chart except daily chart, I would like to disclose that the forecasts that you would read in this blog in Nifty or for that matter any other stocks is arrived after looking into different time frames.

I work with monthly, weekly and daily charts. I used to look at hourly and 15 min chart, however I have stopped using it on regular basis as time frames above daily chart works better for me in terms of forecasting. I invest in markets and do not trade now a days and hence I have also restricted looking at charts when markets are live. This is how this blog is going to shape up from today, daily outlook from Tuesdays till Fridays; intermediate outlook on Mondays and occasionally major outlook as and when things unfold. Apart from all these knowledge sharing would also be focused, as I believe everyone who is reading this blog should not only follow me on markets rather learn and develop one’s own style in forecasting markets. Knowledge sessions would be on weekends.

Nifty Daily Outlook



Looking at the chart, and focusing more on the up move that happened from 7940, clearly shows how Nifty has held up in a tight range. An unconvincing 700 points move on the upside and held back in a tight range. This chart shows a different picture to that of the other charts that we were discussing earlier this week. If you were look at the exact points in this Nifty chart, you could find one thing in common, Nifty has been making lower highs and higher lows; a perfect example for non-trending phase of market.

The good news is we are going to move out of this range very soon. Once we break this congestion zone either on the upside or downside, we are going to see another round of 500-600 points uninterrupted. A two days consecutive close below 8380 marks break down of this zone and a two day consecutive close above 8530 marks a broke out of this zone on upside. It’s always risky to trade in a tight range but a good jobber loves this kind of market situation as he has multiple entry exit opportunities.
Will keep you posted on daily outlook with levels as and when things starts to unfold in Nifty.


Happy trading!

Tuesday, 18 August 2015

Nifty's correction is in place

Good Morning!

Most of you who are following this blog would love to know the answer today for the question: Is the correction that we are witnessing for the past six months is over? We will definitely answer this by end of this post. However, to start off with, I think one must have a better clarity on correction and counter trend. If you were to watch a business channel and listen to analyst’s appearing in different shows, tend to give different numbers and differ in opinion. Some say, it’s a correction, some others would opinion that the trend has changed and few others would say “adopt a wait and watch policy as there is no trend”. It might be confusing for a person who do not understand technical’s, and might be in a dilemma as to whose view is correct.

I would say it’s the perception that differs among analysts. With more than 10,000 indicators, numerous time frames which makes the chartist to look at the same chart, different perception emerges. If you were to observe analysts when the markets are moving one sided, they hardly differ in opinion. The difference of opinion comes only at a time when we see a correction or a counter trend is in place. And understanding counter moves becomes very important. It’s because it can mean only one of the two options, either 1) it can be a correction wherein you get an opportunity to re-enter or average; or 2) it could be a change in trend which gives you an opportunity to exit the current position and build new position on the opposite side.


Understanding counter moves are extremely important and am going to make this easier by posting a lesson on it this weekend. For the time being, let’s shift back to Nifty in action.

Nifty’s Intermediate Outlook:


Looking at the move from 7940 in Nifty weekly chart, also looking at the monthly chart and the daily chart, it’s clear that the correction that we have been seeing in Nifty for the past six months is yet to complete. Looking at the volumes especially delivery volumes of the underlying stocks of Nifty, it’s suggesting the correction is not over. We usually see a spurt up in volumes when the correction phase is done signalling smart money re-enters or averages the current holdings. Also technically speaking, the indicators RSI and MACD on the weekly chart still has more room to go downside. How far downside? 8120 is one key number which am eyeing for the current moment, wherein I feel the Nifty’s congestion zone begins.

Starting Thursday, we are starting with the daily outlook of Nifty. Watch out for Nifty’s action on day to day basis.

Happy Investing!

Monday, 17 August 2015

Nifty's Long term outlook

Good Morning!

It has been years since I have updated my views on Nifty through this blog. In the past four years things have changed dramatically, especially for the stock market. Nifty which had been struck in a range, have broken out and had witnessed a steady rally since then. For this reason, even before I start blogging Nifty daily updates, let me update you on the longer term view and intermediate view on it. Along with Nifty updates, starting next month, I will also start sharing my views on stocks, currencies and commodities.

Nifty – Long term outlook



Let’s look at the Nifty’s monthly chart to understand the long term outlook. Many technical analyst consider December 2013 as a break out month, but for me it’s month of September when things (especially technical indicators that I look out for) have started moving on the positive note. Ever since September 2013 when this current rally began, Nifty had been making impressive moves favouring the bulls. The multi month Bull Run have gained momentum with each passing year. Technically speaking, the multi month Bull Run is far from over, rather I would say we have just began and have many more legs to witness in this rally. Looking at the chart closely and especially looking at the technical indicators, RSI and MACD it’s evident how things have started to cool off in the past six months, i.e. we have entered into a correction phase. This marks the first correction phase post the technical breakout that we have seen in September 2013. The question remains unanswered, is the correction over? Well this question would have be backed by the up move that we have witnessed in Nifty from 7940 levels. To answer this question, we need to go and look at the Nifty chart with lesser time frames like Weekly and Daily chart. However, am going to make this blog more curious and wanted to share knowledge rather than giving you answers (that one number called target) all the time. So, this would be the topic for blogging tomorrow.

One definite thing to carry today: Nifty’s multi month Bull Run has begun and has more legs to come. If you are a long term investor, forget about the correction that we are witnessing for past six months and stay invested as a part of your wealth creation.

For tomorrow: Is the correction over? What are the key levels to watch out for?


Happy Investing!

Thursday, 13 August 2015

Letter from Praveen Pathiyil

Dear friend,

After a span of 4 years in minting money and establishing Pentad and Dalal Times, it's time for me to back with sharing knowledge. Earlier, I have been sharing my analysis on Nifty thrice a day, now I will be sharing my analysis on Nifty, Global Indices, Stocks, Commodities, Economy, Key Events and so on. Over the past 4 years, apart from creating wealth from markets, I have also been consistently upgrading my knowledge on analyzing the markets. Starting 17th August, 2015 this blog would be active with enhanced knowledge sharing.

Stay tuned to earn, learn and understand markets better...

your market friend & forecaster
Praveen Pathiyil