Praveen Pathiyil’s Forecasts

Technically speaking, governor's surprise announcement on the rate cut, hasn't changed the charts much. Nifty likely to continue zig zag moves in the session ahead. The rate cut would give us a positive impact on the longer run. Safe Investing!

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! Let us look at the Nifty chart first on a larger time frame before we proceed on in understanding what is going to happen in the next 2-3 days. Let us look at the main picture first. Looking at the main picture, it is very clear that we are still in the final leg of this correction. This could take more time before we break out of this correction. The reason why it is taking more time in getting us out of the correction zone is very simple; this correction is actually an accumulation phase. Looking very closely at the stocks of the broader market, one can understand one thing that people are accumulating good stocks on a daily basis taking leverage of the ongoing correction that we are witnessing. Though the broader markets may be moving down with each passing d...

Dear All, It has been a testing month for me and dalal times as a team. We at dalal times face challenges that any other startup would face. This has made me not overlooking the blog. I understand the faith and trust that you have kept on me and my team. I sincerely apologies for the non updation of this blog and not answering the queries. I will resume blogging from tonight and try to answer all pending queries by tomorrow. Once again a sincere apologies. Regards, Praveen Pathiyil 

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! It has been a great day for the bulls yesterday, with no bears hardly found on the trading floor. The question is, ' is this the start of the next leg up? ' This can only be answered by looking into the major time frame chart. Let us pull up the Nifty monthly chart to understand where we stand. Looking at the chart, it is clear that the up move of 130 points that we saw yesterday hardly had impacted the ongoing correction. The chart shows more downside to come in coming weeks. From my experience my observation on RSI and its correlation with correction: "for a healthy new leg up, the correction has to end up when RSI settles down in between the range of 50 & 45. I have marked this in the above chart, and we can clearly see that there is still room ...

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! I haven't been updating this blog for past few days, the reason was simple, I haven't seen something new in Nifty's chart. I am still holding the view that Nifty has to correct till 7400. 7460 and 7400 are two crucial support levels that I see in Nifty chart. Now the question for the day is: will 7400 hold?  I am afraid to tell, looking at the chart, I see more correction to take place in Nifty. The ugly part is: a) the next phase of correction below 7460 would be a dragging one b) the time taken to move Nifty out this correction zone would be more than what we could anticipate. Though these are my anticipations based on my experience, I could go wrong, and I have gone wrong many a times. The only person who can answer all our questions is Mr...

Good Evening! We have received a stock query from Mr. Hukumat Nathwani. He wants to know what are the prospects of Tata Steel? Here is my view on Tata Steel. Fundamentally and technically Tata Steel is looking weak. This is one of the stocks which I used to track very closely till a year back. I would like to highlight one important factor here, to my experience I have seen technical studies turn first followed by the fundamental factors; this is one of the reason why I focus more on technicals and not purely going by fundamentals. There is always a difference of opinion between technical analysts and fundamentalist on which one is supreme school of thought, however I believe to earn money from markets you should have through understanding of both the sciences. Let’s get back to Tata Steel. During the month of May, 2014 when this stock broke out on the positive side, I considered it to be the best buy. However the beauty of technicals is this, it can only initia...

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! Am going to keep this short. Nifty’s price action suggests little more downside is on its way. However I was wrong in anticipating it to be a free fall towards 7400. Rather than a free fall we witness a zig zag fall in place for nifty. This shows how strong our ongoing multi month bull run is. 7400 is going to stay, and it would be interesting to watch out for how Bulls behave once hitting this level. The trends for the day. Long term Trend : Correction to the ongoing Bull Run. As long as we hold on to 6580 we will not turn negative on the long term view of Bull that we hold. Intermediate term Trend : Trending Down. Looking at the trending pattern on the intermediate time scale, am not fully convinced the way it unfolds. Any positive move above yesterday’s h...

Ask Pathiyil We understand when it comes to investing in stock markets, there are always many questions in your mind to be answered. When should I invest? Which stock to buy? When to exit? What is the future prospects of a company? and so on.... With these question in your mind, we have created this section exclusive for you. We are here to help you with answers for your questions. Use the contact me form on your left panel to ask question or write to us your question at askpathiyil@gmail.com We would be happy to help you and share our wisdom. Informed Investing!

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! What a start to the month of September. As expected Nifty has started to move towards 7400. We are looking for a firm support at the level of 7460. The question remains, is this good enough to hold for the multi month Bull Run on the larger time frame? With yesterday’s price action, the good news for the bears is the intermediate trend has turned negative. This will add more pressure for the last standing bulls (short term investors). Meanwhile, the psychology parameter which was bullish till Monday have also turned and it indicates a neutral view. If bears manage to close Nifty lower today, we could see fear creeping into the markets. Technically Speaking, the inherent strength (marked by RSI) on all different time scales (daily, weekly and monthly) has more room to...