Praveen Pathiyil’s Forecasts

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! Having broken all major support (8240 & 8120) last week and closed below them, Nifty likely to continue its downward journey towards 7400 this week. If you look closely the Nifty chart at different time frames one thing is evident, that volumes spike up at every fall, indicating how the bears are  utilizing  the opportunity to build short with every short lived raise. 7940 would act as a minor support for the day, however having this level broken last week, we can see this level breaking at ease by the bears. In short, especially the last 3 days of this week would be controlled mainly by the bears.  Technically speaking, on the daily chart of Nifty I am looking for a move in RSI towards 50 and MACD to converge a little more. These would give mo...

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! A positive move yesterday and possibly today do not change our outlook in Nifty. If you think I am a bear, you are wrong. I am not a bull nor a bear, and keep changing roles as per the market trend. I believe staying one sided in market won’t lead you anywhere. Today is the start of a new series and we are also going to start our Bank Nifty analysis from today. We will also introduce stocks from Monday. First thing first. Let’s look at Nifty’s chart and understand what it holds. Nifty has broken down with a gap down, unless Nifty manages to close above the start of the gap down i.e. close above 8360, we will hold on to our intermediate view as negative on Nifty. The volumes data for yesterdays could mislead as it was expiry. It would be interesting to know how Nifty a...

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! It’s going to be a crucial expiry for Nifty. While most of the roll overs have been done, it would be interesting to understand how smart money would stack up positions for the next series. It’s always the trend that will guide us in understanding what is most likely to happen in the coming days/ weeks/ months. So am going to make this a point to highlight you what the trends are on every blog post that been updated. For Nifty the trends are: Long term Trend : Correction to the ongoing Bull Run. As long as we hold on to 6580 we will not turn negative on the long term view of Bull that we hold. Intermediate term Trend : Not trending. Short term Trend : Trending Down. The trend will not change until we close above 8240, which means 8240 would act as SL for ...

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! The correction isn’t over. Yesterday’s positive closing is just a relief rally that we witnessed and not the start of the next leg up. We are fast moving towards 7400 on the downside. Having expiry round the corner, we believe the haphazard move in markets to continue. Once the correction is done, we are going to have wonderful opportunity to enter into sound stocks which could fetch 3 times or 4 times the present value. Stay patient until we are done with turbulent wave. Safe Investing!

Bottom Line : We are in last leg of the first correction of our multi month Bull Run. We will not enter Bear trajectory until Nifty breaches and close below 6580 for three consecutive days. Good Morning! What a day it was! A Monday to forget, unfortunately not. As I said last week, the unconvinced up move 7940 has eventually faded out and we have started with new (probably) last leg of this correction phase. This is a correction only and looking at the nifty chart in different time frames, it is clear that we have more points to go down before we conclude saying the correction is over. What are we looking for, on the downside? This is how most likely the nifty is going to move in the coming weeks. A free fall until 7430 An up move (dead cat bounce) all the way till 7940 A zig zag move towards 7430 – 7250 – 7090 – 6940 – 6810 Remember these zig zag moves, not necessarily need to be met: the reason is we are in the first correction of a multi month bull ral...

An impressive come back! It has been an impressive come back by the bulls especially during the last one hour of today's trade. However two important questions remains unanswered. 1) Is this come back by the bulls enough for the gap down and break down of congestion zone created by bears this morning? and 2) Will bulls manage to close above 8322 today? Yes, I think today's closing is more important to chart out the next phase of move in nifty. Eagerly awaiting close and looking at the key level 8322.

Good Morning! Am going to keep this short, as there is no major change in the daily chart of Nifty. Still struck within the congestion zone, Nifty might break out of the zone at the earliest. On the backdrop of global melt down the previous night, this seems more likely as this could be the trigger to get nifty out of this zone. Once the break down is confirmed, we will start discussing possible levels in Nifty. Keep a close watch on 8120 as this could be first likely target on downside. Do check back this weekend as we are going to start classroom on technical analysis. Bears are more likely to overpower if we see a negative close today. Am going to do a quick wrap up at 3.15p.m. today, in order to help you decide to stay long or short in the market. Happy trading!

Good Morning! Working with different time frames of a chart provides much better clarity in understanding what could be the most likely next move in it. A good analyst never arrives at a conclusion just by looking at a chart in isolation. Starting today we are going to discuss what could unfold in Nifty on day to day basis. Even though I will not be populating any other Nifty time frame chart except daily chart, I would like to disclose that the forecasts that you would read in this blog in Nifty or for that matter any other stocks is arrived after looking into different time frames. I work with monthly, weekly and daily charts. I used to look at hourly and 15 min chart, however I have stopped using it on regular basis as time frames above daily chart works better for me in terms of forecasting. I invest in markets and do not trade now a days and hence I have also restricted looking at charts when markets are live. This is how this blog is going to shape up from today, daily ...

Good Morning! Most of you who are following this blog would love to know the answer today for the question: Is the correction that we are witnessing for the past six months is over? We will definitely answer this by end of this post. However, to start off with, I think one must have a better clarity on correction and counter trend. If you were to watch a business channel and listen to analyst’s appearing in different shows, tend to give different numbers and differ in opinion. Some say, it’s a correction, some others would opinion that the trend has changed and few others would say “adopt a wait and watch policy as there is no trend”. It might be confusing for a person who do not understand technical’s, and might be in a dilemma as to whose view is correct. I would say it’s the perception that differs among analysts. With more than 10,000 indicators, numerous time frames which makes the chartist to look at the same chart, different perception emerges. If you were to observe a...

Good Morning! It has been years since I have updated my views on Nifty through this blog. In the past four years things have changed dramatically, especially for the stock market. Nifty which had been struck in a range, have broken out and had witnessed a steady rally since then. For this reason, even before I start blogging Nifty daily updates, let me update you on the longer term view and intermediate view on it. Along with Nifty updates, starting next month, I will also start sharing my views on stocks, currencies and commodities. Nifty – Long term outlook Let’s look at the Nifty’s monthly chart to understand the long term outlook. Many technical analyst consider December 2013 as a break out month, but for me it’s month of September when things (especially technical indicators that I look out for) have started moving on the positive note. Ever since September 2013 when this current rally began, Nifty had been making impressive moves favouring the bulls. The multi...

Dear friend, After a span of 4 years in minting money and establishing Pentad and Dalal Times, it's time for me to back with sharing knowledge. Earlier, I have been sharing my analysis on Nifty thrice a day, now I will be sharing my analysis on Nifty, Global Indices, Stocks, Commodities, Economy, Key Events and so on. Over the past 4 years, apart from creating wealth from markets, I have also been consistently upgrading my knowledge on analyzing the markets. Starting 17th August, 2015 this blog would be active with enhanced knowledge sharing. Stay tuned to earn, learn and understand markets better... your market friend & forecaster Praveen Pathiyil